Our Theory of Dietary Behavior Change
Dairy Is the First Domino
Picture a domino run: one nudge sets off everything that follows.
In dietary change, that first nudge is dairy.
Remove it, and people often notice a difference within days. That early, tangible result tends to build the confidence to reconsider what else is on the plate.
We’ve seen this pattern across years of campaigns, policy work, and thousands of conversations. It’s why our strategy starts here — dairy is the most achievable change in food, and it makes the ones that follow easier.
The conditions are already shifting. An industry sustained by federal subsidies. A generation drinking less. Plant milk at 13% of the market, while other plant-based categories are still working toward one percent.
Our full Theory of Change lays out the evidence, the market data, and the roadmap.
Putting the Challenge in Perspective
While dairy products are everywhere—milk in cereal, cheese on pizza, butter on toast—they’re also the easiest to replace. Dairy alternatives are ubiquitous in the marketplace, especially when it comes to fluid milks, ice cream, butter, and yogurts. With smart campaigns, we can accelerate this dietary and cultural trend and give consumers a mouth-watering, positive experience with plant-based food.
Dairy Is Both Challenge and Opportunity
Over the years of doing this work, we’ve developed a powerful philosophy: removing dairy is the gateway to a vegan world. This idea stems from our experience, measurable impact, and countless conversations—online, in person, and through five years of interviewing experts, laypeople, and individuals from all walks of life on the Switch4Good podcast. When people give up dairy, the overwhelming majority experience a profound shift in how they feel, often overnight. The most common refrain we hear is, “I stopped eating dairy to see what would happen and immediately felt better. All of my symptoms disappeared, and I had more energy. I didn’t realize dairy was making me feel so bad.”
When people experience this kind of change, they are hardwired to want more. This curiosity often leads them to question other animal foods and how giving them up might make them feel. The dairy industry used to tell people they needed dairy to thrive, and people believed it. But not anymore. Folks, especially Gen Z and Gen Alpha, are becoming increasingly aware that dairy is not necessary.
Dairy Is Clearly In Decline
Additionally, the dairy industry is struggling, propped up by massive infusions of government dollars, a dairy check-off program and export promotion programs. Seventy-three percent of the dairy industry’s income comes from our federal government, indicating that consumers are not keeping them in business. Historically, the collapse of an industry involves both internal and external factors, and with dairy, these factors are converging at once.
Several Key Shifts Are Driving Dairy’s Increasing Obsolescence
Technological Disruption
Advances in food technology, category innovation, and significant investments have boosted the development of high-quality plant-based dairy products. Plant milk now claims over 13% market share and 38% household penetration in the US alone. In contrast, plant-based meat and seafood holds only 0.7% US market share and 11% household penetration. Plant milk’s runaway success proves that when a plant-based product rivals dairy on taste and price, consumers adopt it fast enough to reshape an entire category, while others are still catching up.
Economic Turmoil
The deepening affordability crisis and other economic challenges in the US have tightened consumer budgets for food -–including plant-based food and beverages.That said, many Americans just are not drinking milk any more. In 2021, U.S. dairy milk consumption hit an all-time low of 11 gallons per person, down from 22 gallons in 1970, when record-keeping began. The dairy industry decline is especially prevalent among Gen Z consumers, who purchased 20% less milk than the national average in 2023. While it is true that 2024 saw a slight uptick in fluid milk sales, the recovery was short-lived. The Dairy Industry’s own reporting indicates more decline in cow’s milk sales from 2025 into 2026.
Food Policy Changes
The regulatory and legislative landscape regarding food is shifting in favor of greater nutrition equity and broader consumer choice. Through years of strategic advocacy, coalition building, and policy engagement, Switch4Good helped shape the inclusion of fortified soy milk as nutritionally equivalent to dairy milk in the 2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (which was rolled into the 2025 DGA) and advanced reforms to the WIC program that expanded access to plant-based options while reducing required dairy quantities by as much as 33%. Building on this momentum, Switch4Good successfully shepherded the bipartisan FISCAL Act (S. 222) through Congress, ending the 80-year cow’s milk monopoly in the National School Lunch Program and guaranteeing students the freedom to choose nutritionally equivalent plant-based milk. These landmark policy victories demonstrate that institutional barriers to plant-based nutrition can be dismantled, creating a pathway for broader adoption, improved public health, greater nutrition equity, and a more just and sustainable food system.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The dairy industry has been hit by droughts, fires, and bird flu outbreaks, causing production costs to rise and supply shortages. In 2023, a substantial market dip combined with soaring feed and fuel expenditures and shrinking margins made for the most challenging year endured by US farmers since 2009. Extreme monopolization in the dairy sector has left many with limited options for where to sell their milk.
Changing Consumer Preferences
Despite overall contraction in the plant-based food sector, demand for plant-based milk continues to grow. Current market size is approximately $2.7 billion, according to SPINS & GFI data. Plant-based milks, including almond, soy, oat, and coconut milk, are attracting more and more US consumers who are motivated by health consciousness and dietary preferences. The demand for plant-based alternatives to cow’s milk is increasing as more consumers seek options that are lactose-free, environmentally sustainable, and more ethical choices.
Healthier Dairy Alternatives Made From Plants
These shifts have led to the proliferation of plant-based dairy alternatives, which are improving in taste, texture, and nutritional profile. From almond milk to cashew cheese, these alternatives are no longer niche products; they are mainstream options available in most grocery stores. This accessibility makes it easier for people to make the switch, reducing the friction traditionally associated with dietary change.
As people eliminate dairy, they explore other options, discovering the culinary diversity and benefits of a plant-based diet. The initial success of removing dairy instills confidence and curiosity, leading to further reductions in meat and other animal products.
Health concerns, environmental impacts, and the rise of viable alternatives are aligning to make dairy the first animal-based food domino to topple, and it should compel us to double-down on anti-dairy effects and to break the government’s hand feeding of dairy to kids, the military and other key consumer groups. This shift away from dairy may be the trigger towards more sustainable and health-conscious choices, and that pattern may become infectious and elevate other non-animal-based products in the marketplace.
When it comes to dietary habits, let’s put the “effective” in effective altruism.
A Note From Our Founder, Dotsie Bausch
I’m no philosopher, but I was one of the best athletes in the world—which makes me a theorist in beating the odds. Reaching the top required ruthless critical thinking and applied logic. From that experience, I learned how to decode the theory of practical, measurable economic efficiency in bike racing. Not surprisingly, that theory has many applications in the world of activism.
Late to the Game
I started bike racing at the age of 26. (Most world-class athletes start their chosen sport at the age of 6 or at least by the age of 16, so 26 isa bit late.) I knew by starting so late I would need to be efficient in how I trained, never wasting any time or movement, making every pedal stroke three times as purposeful and meaningful as my competitors who had years of training on me already. It became clear to me, very early in my career, that every single moment desperately counts, just like it should in our animal activism.
I started with the notion that if I could identify my strengths, I could double down on training those strengths, and then I could work my way towards getting good enough to be noticed by the national team. Yes, I would certainly have to work on my weaknesses, but I would not need to double down on those efforts until I was on the national team. I recognized that I had to use what was working for me already to get invited to a national team camp—then I could begin fine-tuning my weaknesses once I had reached my first goal. My strengths were two-fold; I had an extraordinary VO₂ max (i.e. lung capacity/oxygen consumption) that was unusual for someone who had just picked up the bike. I also had a very high hematocrit (ratio of the volume of red blood cells to the total volume of blood), which teetered naturally on the edge of being illegal in my sport of bike racing. I proved to be exceptionally talented at identifying and honing my strengths and weaknesses and have found time and again in animal activism that deftly identifying and focusing intently on organizational strengths is crucial to success.
Setting Ambitious Goals
If I were to reach my goal of making the national team within a 4-year timeframe, it was critical that I maximize my productivity and be allocative and dynamic. I went to work and doubled down on what I already had in the bank, which proved to be the right decision, as I made the national team in 3 years and 4 months. Now, it was time to work on my weaknesses, while maintaining my efforts and continue working on my strengths. My weaknesses ranged from poor technical bike handling skills to a lack of pure speed, or cadence economics, as it’s called. As I reflect on how diligently I addressed my weaknesses while maintaining concerted efforts to bolster my strengths, I see many parallels between my Olympic goals at the time and what I currently view as an opportunity to corral the individual strengths of animal activists to concentrate on refined goals that collectively affect change.
At the time, I was unaware I would become one of the best track racers in the world, where cadence economics is one of the most important traits of a champion track racer. I never stopped working on my weaknesses—the focus that finally landed me on the Olympic podium. Today, I am fully aware that we animal activists are collectively poised to make incremental progress in the realms of political policy, infiltrating general news outlets, and influencing public opinion through social outreach once we combine our strengths and unite as a team. Then, and only then, can we inject the same principles of efficiency that made me an Olympic champion into helping activists become effective and efficient champions of animal welfare advocacy.
Doing More of What Already Works
By applying my theories of efficient training and doubling down on our strengths, I believe we can reach effective altruism if we all begin doubling down on the efforts that are already working: take down the flailing dairy industry first. After we see this behemoth of an animal food group fold, we can begin working on other animal foods, as the stage will have been set, the cleats locked and loaded, the finish line closer than ever before. I know it feels unsettling to hear new ideas and adapt to new theories, but we need to be willing to face those fears. Being courageous is not the absence of fear; the very essence of courage is doubling down even when you feel afraid. So, what are you waiting for? Take your mark. Beeeep!
Why Is Dairy Such a Health Problem?
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